Expert NFL Picks for Week 14, Including Chiefs-Dolphins and Steelers-Bills

This is NFL Best Bets, a recurring series in which professional sports handicappers lend us their insights and picks for the most intriguing matchups for each week of the football season.

For this edition of Best Bets, Chris Altruda, a national betting industry analyst for PennBets.com, Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City, and sports betting reporter Josh Appelbaum of VSiN share their opinions on five Week 14 games, including the Chiefs heading to Miami to take on the Dolphins and the Steelers trekking up to Buffalo to do battle with the Bills.

You’ve got places to go, people to see and possibly some wagers to make, so let’s get to it.

Kansas City (11-1) (-351, -7, O/U 49.5) at Miami Dolphins (8-4)

A compelling matchup because … boasting the best point differential in the NFL at +116, the Chiefs come into this game riding a seven-game winning streak. It hasn’t always been pretty, but Kansas City is winning ballgames and is in play for the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC. The Dolphins also have an impressive point differential (+91) but are entering what will be the toughest four-game stretch of their season (Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Bills).

Altruda’s Angle: Thanks to the Steelers losing, the Chiefs now have a four-game sprint to claim (for now) what would be a coveted first-round bye and force the AFC playoffs to go through Arrowhead Stadium. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City got bogged down in the red zone last week as Harrison Butker had four field goals of 35 yards or shorter before banging through a clutch 48-yarder with 1:04 to play. Where Denver’s defense bent but didn’t break, Miami has a ball-hawking unit that has recorded at least one takeaway in every game and 21 overall. The Dolphins have done well to overachieve to get to this point after a 1-3 start, and head coach Brian Flores deserves credit for being brave enough to turn to No. 5 overall pick Tua Tagovailoa under center. However, the quarterback position will be the difference in this game. For all of Mahomes’s otherworldly talents, his most underrated one is not making mistakes that become turnovers. Additionally, he has more than held his own against Bill Belichick-founded defenses that Flores helped design. This game likely shows the pecking order of the next generation of AFC quarterbacks, which means Mahomes shows the rookie who’s boss. I expect a sharper Chiefs team and a double-digit win to cover.

Gable’s Guess: Since Week 4, Miami is 7-1 against the spread and straight up. think it’s really due to their defense and special teams. Tua is coming off his best game thus far and he has yet to throw an interception in the NFL. But Kansas City has been getting some turnovers of late and have had five interceptions over the last three games. When you look at Miami’s record, they’ve feasted on the sub-.500 teams this year. They have a 6-1 record against those teams and they’re only 2-3 against teams with a .500 record or better. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite and each of their last four wins have come by six points or fewer. They have just a 33 percent conversion rate in the red zone in their last three games. They still rank first in the NFL in yards per game with 427.6, but they are 17th in total defense and are allowing 358.2 yards per game. The total being low, I think I’d be looking to take the over in this one.

Appelbaum’s Assessment: The Chiefs (6-6 ATS) have won seven straight and just beat the Broncos 22-16 on Sunday night, although they failed to cover as 13-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (9-3 ATS) started the season 1-3 but have gone 7-1 since, most recently beating the Bengals 19-7 last week and covering as 10-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public is all over Patrick Mahomes and company. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we’ve seen Kansas City stay frozen at -7.5 or even fall to -7. This indicates wiseguy money buying low on the Dolphins plus the points. December home dogs of +7 or more have covered roughly 56 percent of the time over the past decade. I’ll grab the points and bank on the ‘Fins keeping it close.

Our Pick: The Chiefs are due for an explosion. Lay the points with KC.

Arizona Cardinals (6-6) (-130, -2, O/U 45) at New York Giants (5-7)

A compelling matchup because … losers of three in a row, the Arizona Cardinals now find themselves on the outside of the playoffs looking in, and quarterback Kyler Murray appears to be playing at less than 100 percent. Meanwhile, the Giants have won their last four games to take the lead in the awful NFC East. Should New York win, these teams will have identical records, a situation that would have seemed unthinkable four weeks ago.

Altruda’s Angle: Remember when the Cardinals were 6-3 and coming off a victory at Buffalo as we were all prepared to anoint Arizona quarterback Murray as the next big thing? The Cardinals haven’t won since and were shredded defensively by the Los Angeles Rams last weekend. Coach Kliff Kingsbury has done well scripting drives at the start of each half, but his in-game adjustments to counteract defenses containing Murray and making him more of a pocket passer are lacking. Arizona is facing what is almost a must-win game against one of the league’s hottest teams. New York showed plenty of resiliency last weekend, stifling Seattle in the Pacific Northwest with a resurgent defense and just enough offense from backup QB Colt McCoy. Daniel Jones is expected to return for this game and bettors are starting to come around to the Giants — they opened as 3-point underdogs and the line has shifted in early wagering. Everything looks to be pointing in New York’s direction and Arizona is making its fourth trip to the East Coast for an early kickoff. But with the line moving towards the Giants, the feeling is Murray and the Cardinals are due. I’ll ride with Arizona and lay the points, but don’t be afraid to wait closer to kickoff to see if the line tightens further.

Gable’s Guess: The Giants have been doing really well putting themselves in position not to lose these games. They’re not blowing anyone out, but they’re staying in every game as of late. The Cardinals are coming in averaging 27.6 points per game this season while the Giants are only averaging 19.5. The Giants have hit the under in all four games during their winning streak. Arizona has also hit the under in their last six road games. In Arizona’s three straight losses, only the Bengals are averaging fewer yards per play. Murray is most effective when he’s able to run the ball and throw. With him not really running the ball lately, he’s getting contained by the defense. I think the weather may have some impact on the game, as they are calling for gusty conditions at the Meadowlands. Especially with these two teams struggling on offense, I’d look at taking the under in this one.

Appelbaum’s Assessment: The Cardinals (5-7 ATS) started 5-2 but have gone just 1-4 since. Most recently, Arizona lost 38-28 to the Rams, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Giants (8-4 ATS) have quietly been on a roll. Last week, they shocked the Seahawks 17-12, winning outright as massive 10.5-point road dogs. The lookahead line on this game was Arizona listed as a 3-point road favorite. We’ve seen pro money back the streaking Giants, dropping the line down to 2.5 or 2. I’ll back the G-Men at home catching points, especially if Daniel Jones plays.

Our Pick: The Cardinals can’t really be this bad, can they? Lay the points.

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) (-150, -3, O/U 51.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-5)

A compelling matchup because … these two teams are back-to-back in the AFC playoff standings with the Colts (No. 7) currently qualifying for the postseason and the Raiders (No. 8) just missing the cut. A victory for Las Vegas here would flip that scenario, as the teams would have the same records at 8-5 and the Raiders would own the tiebreaker thanks to the win.

Altruda’s Angle: Look, we can rail on the Raiders for needing 59 minutes and 55 seconds to keep the New York Jets winless last week, but let’s also remember they were without running back Josh Jacobs — a significant factor in their offense. Derek Carr picked up the slack far better in Week 13 than he did in Week 12 versus Atlanta and finished with 381 yards and three touchdown passes against the Jets. In addition to the expected return of Jacobs, the Raiders are expected to make their offensive line whole with the return of mammoth right tackle Trent Brown, who has been sidelined the last five weeks due to COVID-19 issues. Las Vegas has averaged just 67 rushing yards the last three games, less than half of the 139 they averaged over the first nine games. There are still some issues defensively, ones the Colts will try to exploit as they wrestle Tennessee for the AFC South lead. Indianapolis was both lucky and good last week at Houston, doing just enough to win and catching a break when a snap to Texans QB Deshaun Watson from the Colts’ two-yard line with 1:28 to play went awry. Indianapolis’s offense looked all-world in the first half when it put up 24 points, then disappeared in the second half. That cannot happen in this game, but the Raiders’ defense is soft enough where it shouldn’t. This game has final possession and first to 30 written all over it, so I’m riding the over.

Gable’s Guess: Despite giving up some bigger numbers recently, the Colts still have a top-10 defense. Philip Rivers hasn’t been outstanding, but he’s getting the job done and the Colts are averaging 27.5 points per game on offense, which is good for ninth in the league. For this game, the biggest concern is how bad the Raiders look defensively. Offensively, I think they have enough firepower to hang with the Colts and both certainly teams need this game for playoff reasons. I believe the Raiders will need to win out to clinch a playoff berth. But, with the small number here, I think it will be the Colts covering to try and stay with the Titans in their division.

Appelbaum’s Assessment: The Colts (7-5 ATS) have won three of their last four and just took down the Texans 26-20, covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Raiders (7-5 ATS) snapped a two-game skid last week with an improbable 31-28 last-second win over the Jets, although they failed to cover as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 2.5-point road favorite and we’ve seen lopsided public support push it up to the key number of -3. I’ll go contrarian and take advantage of an inflated line. Give me Raiders +3.

Our Pick: Rivers knows the Raiders well. Lay the points with the Colts.

Washington Football Team (5-7) (+145, +3, O/U 43) at San Francisco 49ers (5-7)

A compelling matchup because … Washington just pulled off a major upset by ruining Pittsburgh’s undefeated season during an odd Monday evening game and will be looking to win their fourth game in a row against a San Francisco team that is a shell of the squad that went to the Super Bowl. The 49ers are just 1-5 when playing at home this season.

Altruda’s Angle: The quick turnaround and the expected dip in adrenaline after the euphoria of knocking off previously unbeaten Pittsburgh will be a challenge for the WFT as they fly cross-country to face a reeling 49ers team that has dropped four of five after losing at home to Buffalo. Washington’s defensive line is in full blossom, holding opponents to a combined 151 rushing yards during its three-game winning streak as No. 2 overall pick Chase Young is proving to be a menace. Alex Smith, the former No. 1 overall pick by San Francisco in 2005, continues to be a cringe-worthy watch. Still, he keeps putting WFT in position to win and has a TD pass in each game during the winning streak. The Niners have been hit by an astronomical amount of injuries, but the other truth is it’s hard to win committing multiple turnovers every game. San Francisco has recorded two or more giveaways in six straight games and it puts the defense under too much strain to overcome. The WFT has momentum on its side, but a short turnaround, an expected letdown and a third consecutive road game make this iffy. I’m opting for a same-game teaser of Washington +9 and OVER 37.5 points.

Gable’s Guess: The Niners are technically still alive for a playoff spot, but they have really had a tough go of it this season due to all the injuries. But, if they can pull off a win here, they could get Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle back for the stretch run, which would be a huge boost for them and their playoff chances. It’s been a very improbable year for Smith, going from possibly never playing or even walking again to coming in and doing what he’s done. While he’s certainly not explosive, he’s doing enough to manage the game and keep Washington competitive with a chance to win. Both defenses have looked pretty strong as of late and I expect both teams to lean more heavily on the run. It’s a very low total, but both teams like to run the ball and neither one really scores in a hurry or has a bunch of big plays. I want to take the points here with Washington and hope their defense continues the strong play they’ve displayed in the last few weeks.

Appelbaum’s Assessment: Washington (6-5-1 ATS) is getting hot at the right time. The Football Team has won three straight and just shocked the undefeated Steelers 23-17, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers (5-7 ATS) are watching their playoff chances slip away and just fell to the Bills 34-24, losing outright as 1.5-point favorites. San Francisco is just 1-4 over their last five games. This line opened with the 49ers listed as 3.5-point “home” favorites (this game will be played in Arizona). We’ve seen a big adjustment toward Washington here, with respected pro money grabbing the Football Team with the hook, dropping it from +3.5 to +3. Washington has value as a short road dog +6 or less (47-25 ATS, 65 percent) and a dog with a line move in their favor (52-31 ATS, 63 percent). I like the matchup of the Football Team’s front four against Nick Mullens. Give me WFT catching points.

Our Pick: Crazy to say, but Washington getting points is hard to pass up.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) (+125, +2.5, O/U 46.5) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)

A compelling matchup because … Pittsburgh may have been looking ahead to this game on Monday when they largely failed to show up against Washington. The Bills have only lost once at home this season and would be one game closer to locking up their first division title since the ’90s with a win here. A Buffalo loss would cast some doubt about whether the Bills really deserve to be counted among the AFC’s elite teams.

Altruda’s Angle: Perhaps the Steelers were due to finally lose, but let’s be fair to Mike Tomlin’s team — no other squad has had to put up with as much rearranging of their schedule. This game features another short turnaround, though the Bills are on similar footing given Buffalo also played Monday night and had to make a (happy) cross-country flight home after waxing San Francisco to stay atop the AFC East. Josh Allen is in line to become just the second 4,000-yard passer in franchise history and has a solid chance to eclipse Jim Kelly’s single-season team record of 33 TD passes. The third-year QB, whose game bears more than a passing resemblance to counterpart Ben Roethlisberger, posted his third four-touchdown game of 2020 last weekend. He has a chance to take advantage of a Steelers defense missing safety Bud DuPree and possibly cornerback Joe Haden, who is in concussion protocol. Linebacker and signal-caller Robert Spillane is also trying to bounce back from a knee injury, but the offense will be at full strength with the return of running back James Conner and center Maurkice Pouncey coming off the COVID-19 reserve list. That is good news for Roethlisberger, who was victimized by multiple drops against the Washington Football Team. The lake-effect winds could be a factor in this game with Sunday night temperatures expected to be near freezing at kickoff. But primetime means the points get piled up and expect that trend to continue. To borrow a phrase from recently christened Ford Frick Award winner Al Michaels: This game will be “overwhelming” at a certain point, which means taking the over at 46.5 points.

Gable’s Guess: We actually opened with the Steelers favored by 1.5, so the line has moved pretty dramatically. Pittsburgh is going to be playing their third game in 12 days and this is certainly the most difficult opponent in that stretch. Buffalo’s passing game was very impressive against the Niners. Defensively, Buffalo has only given up 25.6 points per game while the Steelers are at the top of the NFL in defensive points per game. They also have 44 sacks on the season which leads the NFL. Allen is somewhat mobile, but he’s certainly going to be feeling a lot of pressure in this one. The Steelers are leading the league in dropped passes. For an offense that doesn’t like to, or maybe can’t, run the ball effectively, that’s a recipe for disaster. Both teams come into this with the same amount of rest. In my power ratings, I still have the Steelers as probably one-point favorites, so now that the Bills are favored, I’m going to take the Steelers and the points.

Appelbaum’s Assessment: The Steelers (8-4 ATS) suffered their first loss of the season last week, losing straight up as 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, Buffalo (7-5 ATS) has won two straight and five of their last six, including a 34-24 win over the 49ers last week as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Pro money immediately pounced on Buffalo and flipped the line. Essentially, wiseguys have flipped Buffalo from an underdog to a favorite. I’ll back Bills Mafia with a sharp line move in their favor.

Our Pick: Can’t see the Steelers losing two in a row. Take ’em and the points.

Last Week: 3-2, Season: 35-29

Editor’s note: Lines fluctuate throughout the week based on injuries, weather reports and other factors. Make sure to double-check odds before betting.